{ "schemaVersion": 1, "slug": "pachinko-observed-probability-confidence-interval", "generatedAt": "2026-08-24T13:38:07.261Z", "engine": { "machine": "src/simulation/machine.ts#simulateMachineBatch", "random": "src/simulation/random.ts#SeededRandom", "state": "src/simulation/machine.ts#createMachineState" }, "conditions": { "model": "架空の通常時1/319独立抽選モデル", "jackpotDenominator": 319, "spinsPerMachine": 2000, "seedCount": 100, "seedStart": "SEO-CI-PI-20260824-001-b48e6fca", "seedEnd": "SEO-CI-PI-20260824-100-b6d67805", "trainingMachinesPerSeed": 500, "futureMachinesPerSeed": 200, "checkpoints": [ 10, 50, 100, 500 ], "totalMachines": 70000, "totalSpins": 140000000, "confidenceLevel": 0.95, "confidenceMethod": "既知の二項分散 np(1-p)を用いた平均のz区間、z=1.96", "predictionMethod": "Binomial(2000, 1/319)の等裾中央95%区間。下限・上限はCDFが2.5%・97.5%以上となる最小整数", "quantileMethod": "R-7線形補間: position=(n-1)p", "standardDeviationMethod": "標本標準偏差: sqrt(sum((x-mean)^2)/(n-1))", "scope": "通常時2,000回転の初当り回数だけを扱う。RUSH、LT、出玉、収支、回転率、交換率、止め時、台の状態差は評価対象外。", "limitation": "固定した独立同分布モデル内の比較であり、実在機種や次回転、勝敗、利益を予測・保証しない。" }, "theoretical": { "probability": 0.003134796238, "meanJackpotsPerMachine": 6.26959248, "varianceJackpotsPerMachine": 6.24993858, "standardDeviationJackpotsPerMachine": 2.49998772, "prediction95": { "lower": 2, "upper": 12, "width": 10, "theoreticalCoveragePercent": 97.41689 } }, "checkpoints": [ { "machineCount": 10, "sampleMeanSummary": { "count": 100, "mean": 6.179, "median": 6.1, "sampleStandardDeviation": 0.78833606, "min": 4.1, "p05": 5.09, "p25": 5.6, "p75": 6.8, "p95": 7.505, "max": 7.8 }, "confidenceWidthSummary": { "count": 100, "mean": 3.09901688, "median": 3.09901688, "sampleStandardDeviation": 0, "min": 3.09901688, "p05": 3.09901688, "p25": 3.09901688, "p75": 3.09901688, "p95": 3.09901688, "max": 3.09901688 }, "confidenceCoverage": { "containsTheoreticalMean": 97, "seedCount": 100 } }, { "machineCount": 50, "sampleMeanSummary": { "count": 100, 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"sampleMeanSummary": { "count": 100, "mean": 6.2839, "median": 6.287, "sampleStandardDeviation": 0.1073935, "min": 6.064, "p05": 6.1198, "p25": 6.203, "p75": 6.3555, "p95": 6.4387, "max": 6.628 }, "confidenceWidthSummary": { "count": 100, "mean": 0.43826717, "median": 0.43826717, "sampleStandardDeviation": 0, "min": 0.43826717, "p05": 0.43826717, "p25": 0.43826717, "p75": 0.43826717, "p95": 0.43826717, "max": 0.43826717 }, "confidenceCoverage": { "containsTheoreticalMean": 97, "seedCount": 100 } } ], "pooledTraining": { "machines": 50000, "jackpotSummary": { "count": 50000, "mean": 6.2839, "median": 6, "sampleStandardDeviation": 2.50771341, "min": 0, "p05": 3, "p25": 5, "p75": 8, "p95": 11, "max": 21 }, "histogram": [ { "jackpots": 0, "machines": 97 }, { "jackpots": 1, "machines": 574 }, { "jackpots": 2, "machines": 1824 }, { "jackpots": 3, "machines": 3848 }, { "jackpots": 4, "machines": 6084 }, { "jackpots": 5, "machines": 7638 }, { "jackpots": 6, "machines": 7959 }, { "jackpots": 7, "machines": 7262 }, { "jackpots": 8, "machines": 5590 }, { "jackpots": 9, "machines": 3939 }, { "jackpots": 10, "machines": 2415 }, { "jackpots": 11, "machines": 1385 }, { "jackpots": 12, "machines": 752 }, { "jackpots": 13, "machines": 352 }, { "jackpots": 14, "machines": 159 }, { "jackpots": 15, "machines": 65 }, { "jackpots": 16, "machines": 28 }, { "jackpots": 17, "machines": 20 }, { "jackpots": 18, "machines": 4 }, { "jackpots": 19, "machines": 3 }, { "jackpots": 20, "machines": 1 }, { "jackpots": 21, "machines": 1 } ] }, "pooledFuture": { "machines": 20000, "jackpotSummary": { "count": 20000, "mean": 6.301, "median": 6, "sampleStandardDeviation": 2.49002189, "min": 0, "p05": 3, "p25": 5, "p75": 8, "p95": 11, "max": 19 }, "predictionCoverage": { "contained": 19491, "total": 20000, "percent": 97.455 }, "perSeedCoveragePercentSummary": { "count": 100, "mean": 97.455, "median": 97.5, "sampleStandardDeviation": 1.16144937, "min": 94.5, "p05": 95.5, "p25": 97, "p75": 98.5, "p95": 99, 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