{ "schemaVersion": 3, "slug": "pachinko-expected-value-per-spin", "generatedAt": "2026-08-19T02:31:31.158Z", "generatedForDateJst": "2026-08-19", "engine": { "random": "src/simulation/random.ts#SeededRandom", "sampler": "src/content/simulation-results/expectedValuePerSpin.ts#simulateExpectedValueSeed", "theoretical": "EV_per_spin = 1000 / border_spins - 1000 / actual_spins; E[sum_N] = N * EV_per_spin; SD[sum_N] = return_per_hit * sqrt(N * p * (1-p)); measured spins per budget follow Poisson(lambda = true_rate * budget / 1000)" }, "definitions": { "unit": "等価交換の架空モデルにおける通常時1回転", "returnYenPerSpin": "ボーダー18回/千円で損益が釣り合うよう、平均払出価値を1000/18円/回転へ固定", "costYenPerSpin": "実回転率R回/千円から1000/R円/回転として計算", "expectedYenPerSpin": "平均払出価値から平均投資価値を引いた1回転期待値。勝率ではない" }, "conditions": { "equivalentExchange": true, "borderSpinsPerThousandYen": 18, "actualSpinsPerThousandYen": [ 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21 ], "jackpotDenominator": 319.7, "returnValuePerHitYen": 17761.111111, "seedCountPerRate": 30, 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500, "expectedNetYen": -5555.5555 }, { "spins": 1000, "expectedNetYen": -11111.111 }, { "spins": 2000, "expectedNetYen": -22222.222 } ], "singleSpinStandardDeviationYen": 991.787263, "standardErrorOfMeasuredMeanYen": 0.572609 }, "measured": { "totalSpins": 3000000, "totalHits": 9293, "observedHitRate": 0.003097667, "totalNetYen": -34945994.444445, "netYenPerSpin": -11.648665, "perSeedNetYen": { "mean": -1164866.481481, "median": -1107438.888889, "sampleStandardDeviation": 290263.296555, "p05": -1693555.555556, "p95": -725575, "min": -1746838.888889, "max": -556844.444444 }, "perSeedNetYenPerSpin": { "mean": -11.648665, "median": -11.074389, "sampleStandardDeviation": 2.902633, "p05": -16.935556, "p95": -7.25575, "min": -17.468389, "max": -5.568444 } }, "seeds": [ { "seed": "SEO-EV-15-001-20260814", "spinCount": 100000, "hitCount": 322, "observedHitRate": 0.00322, "netYen": -947588.888889, "netYenPerSpin": -9.475889 }, { "seed": "SEO-EV-15-002-20260814", "spinCount": 100000, "hitCount": 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"P05、中央値、P95、プラス確率は架空モデルの分布指標で、実機の勝率や利益を保証するものではない" ] }