{ "schemaVersion": 2, "slug": "pachinko-maximum-drawdown", "generatedAt": "2026-08-30T11:47:39.106Z", "generatedForDateJst": "2026-08-30", "engine": { "random": "src/simulation/random.ts#SeededRandom", "simulation": "src/content/simulation-results/maximumDrawdown.ts#simulateMaximumDrawdownPath", "machineDownsideSimulation": "src/expected-value/engine.ts#simulateExpectationPaths + src/content/simulation-results/maximumDrawdown.ts#analyzeSampledDrawdownEpisodes" }, "experiment": { "purpose": "等価ボーダー18回/千円の架空1/319モデルで、ボーダー条件とプラス2回転条件の収支経路を反復し、最終収支とは別に最大ドローダウンを集計する。", "jackpotDenominator": 319, "jackpotProbability": 0.003134796238, "fixedPayoutValueYen": 17722.222222, "borderSpinsPerThousandYen": 18, "actualSpinsPerThousandYen": [ 18, 20 ], "horizons": [ 2000, 10000, 20000 ], "seeds": 30, "pathsPerSeed": 50, "pathsPerCondition": 1500, "totalPaths": 3000, "totalSimulatedSpins": 60000000, "seedStart": "SEO-MAX-DD-20260818-001", "seedEnd": "SEO-MAX-DD-20260818-030", "maximumDrawdownDefinition": "各時点の過去最高収支から、その後の収支が最も深く下がった金額。開始時点0円も最初のピークに含む。", "maximumLossDefinition": "開始時点0円から見た最も大きなマイナス。最大ドローダウンとは別指標。", "quantileMethod": "R-7 linear interpolation: position=(n-1)p", "scope": "架空の単純モデル。固定平均払出価値を使い、RUSH、LT、出玉振り分け、交換差、持ち玉比率、税、時間制約は含めない。" }, "focus": { "conditionId": "plus-two", "horizonSpins": 20000, "theoreticalExpectedFinalNetYen": 111111.12, "measuredFinalNetYen": { "count": 1500, "mean": 111667.741, "median": 116500, "sampleStandardDeviation": 141588.103, "min": -291111.111, "p05": -113888.889, "p25": 10166.667, "p75": 205111.111, "p90": 293722.222, "p95": 347775, "max": 559555.556 }, "measuredMaximumDrawdownYen": { "count": 1500, "mean": 125117.052, "median": 113550, "sampleStandardDeviation": 49435.544, "min": 45977.778, "p05": 67576.389, "p25": 89593.056, "p75": 148290.278, "p90": 192090, "p95": 221322.222, "max": 346872.222 }, "positiveFinalRate": 0.789333, "finalPositivePaths": { "count": 1184, "maximumDrawdownYen": { "count": 1184, 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"6B9B93D956D14492D0D04DC5A128A546173AE1C64F84E3E65CD82CD755F712A7", "kind": "manufacturer-pdf" }, { "label": "SANYO 『PAスーパー海物語IN地中海2』発表資料", "url": "https://www.sanyobussan.co.jp/information/pdf/sanyo_press_release_20240513.pdf", "checkedAt": "2026-08-30", "sha256": "D4E2DD5F8BEC6B9914D5113925CAB54A691AE8EAC954C0AD36CB67F2272C7E3B", "kind": "manufacturer-pdf" } ] }, "inputs": { "loanYenPerBall": 4, "exchangeBallsPerHundredYen": 25, "actualSpinsPerThousandYen": 20, "heldBallShare": 1, "normalSpins": 100000, "payoutEfficiency": 0.875 }, "experiment": { "seed": "SEO-MAX-DD-MEDITERRANEAN2-20260830-V1", "paths": 600, "horizonNormalSpins": 100000, "sampleIntervalNormalSpins": 100, "totalNormalSpins": 60000000, "quantileMethod": "Hyndman-Fan type 7（昇順配列の位置 (n-1)p を線形補間）", "durationDefinition": "100回転ごとの観測点で、過去最高収支を下回ってから同額以上へ戻るまで。観測終了時に未回復の経路は右側打ち切りとして、確認できた長さだけを数える。", "recoveryDefinition": "各経路で金額が最大だったドローダウンの谷から、直前ピーク以上へ戻った最初の100回転観測点まで。未回復は分布から除外し、打ち切り率を別掲する。", "scope": 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