{
  "schemaVersion": 1,
  "generatedAt": "2026-08-28T20:30:00+09:00",
  "articleSlug": "tokyo-ghoul-pachinko-simulation",
  "question": "パチンコシミュレーターの結果はどこまで信用できるか",
  "answer": "公式スペック、状態遷移、利用者入力、標本誤差を分けて確認する。理論平均との一致は公表条件内の実装を検証するが、実店舗の削りや将来収支までは保証しない。",
  "sourceDataset": {
    "path": "/data/seo/tokyo-ghoul-revenue-paths.json",
    "sha256": "b3087eb146b24b6210ef909e1a57241ba12fb12c46a2ab321783d394791bf5ad",
    "totalNormalSpins": 4800000000,
    "fourYenCalibrationNormalSpins": 2400000000
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    "checkpointCount": 14,
    "finalCheckpointNormalSpins": 2000000,
    "errorDefinition": "600経路の標本平均 − 状態モデルから求めた理論平均",
    "relativeErrorDefinition": "誤差 ÷ 理論平均の絶対値 × 100",
    "zScoreDefinition": "誤差 ÷ 標本平均の標準誤差",
    "finalGate": "通常時200万回転で相対誤差の絶対値1%以下、かつz値の絶対値1.96以下",
    "quantileMethod": "Hyndman-Fan type 7（昇順配列の位置 (n-1)p を線形補間）",
    "profitGuarantee": false
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        "pass": true
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  ],
  "yenScaleChecks": [
    {
      "modelId": "tokyo-ghoul",
      "relation": "4円収支 = 1円収支 × 4（同一Seed・同一玉経路）",
      "comparedPointCount": 8400,
      "maxAbsoluteDifferenceYen": 0,
      "pass": true
    },
    {
      "modelId": "tokyo-ghoul-chodeka-999",
      "relation": "4円収支 = 1円収支 × 4（同一Seed・同一玉経路）",
      "comparedPointCount": 8400,
      "maxAbsoluteDifferenceYen": 0,
      "pass": true
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  ],
  "errorBudget": [
    {
      "layer": "一次資料",
      "status": "監査済み",
      "check": "メーカー公表の通常分母、チャージ、RUSH、出玉振り分けを保存済みsnapshotと照合",
      "residualRisk": "公表値の丸めと非公表内部値"
    },
    {
      "layer": "状態遷移",
      "status": "テスト済み",
      "check": "経路確率和、吸収性、チャージ非突入、Seed再現、1円・4円尺度を検査",
      "residualRisk": "公式資料にない分岐はモデルへ含めない"
    },
    {
      "layer": "利用者入力",
      "status": "入力依存",
      "check": "貸玉、交換率、持ち玉比率、千円回転数を計算条件として明示",
      "residualRisk": "回転ムラ、削り、止め打ち、所要時間、貯玉上限は別途確認"
    },
    {
      "layer": "モンテカルロ",
      "status": "標本誤差を計測",
      "check": "600経路の標本平均を理論平均と比較し、標準誤差とz値を保存",
      "residualRisk": "有限標本の経路差。短期収支や将来結果の予言ではない"
    }
  ],
  "limitations": [
    "理論平均との差が小さくても、一次資料そのものの非公表部分や実店舗条件は検証できない。",
    "チャージ、RUSH、上乗せは公表資料で確定した経路だけを使い、未確認経路を推測しない。",
    "実獲得補正95%と持ち玉比率50%は比較用の仮定であり、利用者の実戦条件ではない。",
    "期待値とシミュレーションは利益を保証せず、遊技結果を予測しない。"
  ]
}